03. Thriving Without Illusions

Dated Jan 1, 2022; last modified on Mon, 05 Sep 2022

Coping with Reality

This chapter felt a bit vacuous with its use of anecdotes to advance points.

Criticism of studies that argue that self-deception makes us happier: conflation of positive illusions and positive beliefs; unfounded definitions of what counts as self-deception; results that can be equally well-explained by something else.

There are alternative coping strategies that don’t involve self-deception: making a hypothetical plan about some unpleasant and unavoidable thing; noticing silver linings but not to the point of sweet lemons; admitting that things could be worse.

Motivation Without Self-Deception

The self-belief model of motivation (e.g. “She believed she could, so she did”) is self-deceptive. Instead, strive for an accurate picture of the odds.

The longer the baseline odds, the better and luckier you’ll need to be to beat them. Odds (and the expected payoffs) help us decide between similarly desirable goals that have different levels of risk.

It’s also worth accounting for variance, as you continue making positive expected value bets. Mentally separate out the role that luck plays in your results from the role that decision-making plays, and judge yourself on the latter.

You want to get into a mental state where if the bad outcome comes to pass, you will only nod your head and say “I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds, and I would make the same bets again, given the same opportunities.”

Influence Without Overconfidence

Two kinds of confidence: epistemic (how sure you are about what’s true), and social (self-assurance). People tend to judge on social confidence, e.g.

Two kinds of certainty: uncertainty “in you” (caused by your own ignorance, or lack of experience), and uncertainty “in the world” (caused by reality being messy and unpredictable). Expressing uncertainty “in the world” is taken more favorably, especially if you:

  • Show that uncertainty is justified. Sometimes your audience isn’t aware of how much uncertainty exists “in the world” on the topic at hand.
  • Give informed estimates and explain where they come from, e.g. “A survey of 120 companies similar to ours showed that 23% had experienced an incident of this type.”
  • Have a plan for dealing with the uncertainty, e.g. a consultant proposing a multi-phase plan to allow for occasional reevaluation.

There are other ways of inspiring people without promising success, e.g. setting ambitious goals, painting a vivid picture of the world you wish to create, speak from your passion on the topic, and so on.

References

  1. The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't. Chapter 7: Coping with Reality. Julia Galef. 2021. ISBN: 9780735217553 .
  2. The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't. Chapter 8: Motivation Without Self-Deception. Julia Galef. 2021. ISBN: 9780735217553 .
  3. Come to your terms. Nate Soares. mindingourway.com . Oct 26, 2015. Accessed Jan 1, 2022.
  4. The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't. Chapter 9: Influence Without Overconfidence. Julia Galef. 2021. ISBN: 9780735217553 .
  5. The relative importance of verbal and nonverbal cues in the expression of confidence. Walker, Michael B.. Australian Journal of Psychology, 29.1 (1977): 45-57. doi.org . scholar.google.com .
  6. A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. Anderson, Cameron; Sebastien Brion; Don A. Moore; Jessica A. Kennedy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103, No. 4 (2012): 718. doi.org . scholar.google.com .