99.9% Caffeine-Free
An example of how something can be true and still bullshit after a fashion.
Nestle’s Hot Cocoa mix: With rich chocolate flavor and only 20 calories per single-serve packet, this cocoa makes a 99.9% caffeine-free, 8 fl oz serving. A 20oz Starbucks drip coffee has ~21mg of caffeine per ounce, and thus 0.075% caffeine by weight – strong coffee is also 99.9% caffeine-free!
Time to End the Food Stamp Program?
An example of how Fermi estimation can help spot bullshit in the world.
FOX ran a story:
Food Stamp Fraud at All-Time High: Is It Time to End the Program?
Food stamp fraud is at an all time high, with cases this year including a state lawmaker and even a millionaire.
According to the USDA, $70m of taxpayer money was wasted in 2016 due to food stamp fraud.
~10% of Americans are on food stamps, i.e., 30m people. The average benefit paid to recipients is ~$1,000 annually. Therefore, the fraction lost to fraud is:
$$ \frac{70,000,000}{30,000,000 \times 1,000} = 0.23\% $$
… and so while the $70m may be correct, 0.23% being lost to fraud doesn’t support shutting down the program. In reality, 15% of Americans are on food stamps, and the average benefit is ~$1,500, bringing the fraud rate to ~ 0.1%.
References
- Case Study — 99.9% Caffeine-free. Carl Bergstrom; Jevin West. www.callingbullshit.org . Accessed Oct 3, 2026.
- Case Study — Foodstamp Fraud. Carl Bergstrom; Jevin West. www.callingbullshit.org . Accessed Oct 3, 2026.