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 Random Link ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Mar 29, 2020 » Prologue 1 min; updated Mar 12, 2022 Fall 1990. Simons had spent 12 years searching for a successful investing formula. In 1989, his net returns were -4.0%. In 1988, he had netted 9.0%. In 1990, he netted 55.0% (77.8% before fees). With Elywn Berlekamp, game theorist professor at UCB, Simons built a model for selecting idea trades based on data. Berlekamp knew their approach was alchemic - no cash flows, interest rate forecasts, product research. Some of the trade recommendations didn’t make sense.... Oct 2, 2017 » Bernoulli Processes 3 min; updated Jan 21, 2022 Bernoulli Process A Bernoulli Process is a sequence of independent $${0, 1}$$ - valued random variables $$X_1, X_2, X_3, …$$, e.g. $$0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1$$ A Bernoulli Process does not mandate that the probability distributions of the $$X_i$$ be identical. That is up to the model that we choose. For instance, the Binomial Random Variable assumes $$\mathbb{P}\{X_i = 1\} = p \ \ \forall i$$ Suppose you flip a coin repeatedly, and record $$0$$ for tails and $$1$$ for heads.... May 2, 2020 » Health Ethics 1 min; updated Sep 8, 2021 Harden, a liberal behavior geneticist, is publishing a book, “The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality”. Watch this space as it casts doubt on prevailing social justice thesis that environmental factors, and not genetics, influence behavior or social outcomes. Check back in Sept 2022 (one year from now). Faster Human Trials In 1986, AZT (AIDS treatment) showed 1/145 deaths compared to the placebo’s 16/137. 6,000 AIDS patients were offered AZT, helping it get to the public much faster....