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| Mar 29, 2020 | » | Introduction
1 min; updated Mar 12, 2022
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| Mar 29, 2020 | » | Prologue
1 min; updated Sep 5, 2022
Fall 1990. Simons had spent 12 years searching for a successful investing formula. In 1989, his net returns were -4.0%. In 1988, he had netted 9.0%. In 1990, he netted 55.0% (77.8% before fees). With Elywn Berlekamp, game theorist professor at UCB, Simons built a model for selecting idea trades based on data. Berlekamp knew their approach was alchemic - no cash flows, interest rate forecasts, product research. Some of the trade recommendations didn’t make sense. ... |
But time in the market is king - at least that’s what Malkiel taught me. Ranking the returns using Bayesian methods gives: Simmons 28.0%, Soros 26.9%, Cohen 26.2%, Lynch 26.2%, Buffet 24.6%, Dalio 24.0%. Maybe I did something wrong - Dalio shouldn’t be close to Buffet. And I thought Buffet would be higher up in the new ranking.
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