The Black Swan [Book]

The problem of induction: a turkey cannot possibly predict what happens on the afternoon before Thanksgiving.

Statements presented as science may not be as rigorous as they seem. Finding confirmation is easy.

We are suckers for narratives. Hindsight attributes causality where none was apparent, e.g. the series of events that led to WWII. However, negative confirmation from history is invaluable.

Couples know that a third to a half of all marriages fail, but surely not them! 94% of Swedes believe they are better drivers than 50% of Swedes.

The more detailed your knowledge of empirical reality, the more you mistake noise for signal.

When dealing with policy, the worst case is far more consequential than the forecast itself. Also, the longer you wait, the longer you will be expected to wait.

Notes

Mediocristan vs Extremistan: In Extremistan, one single observation can disproportionately affect the outcome.

If finance were Gaussian, then the 2008 crash (more than 20 std) would take place every several billion lifetimes of the universe. In the last 50 years, the 10 most extreme days in finance markets represent half the returns.