Exercise 1: Have a regular savings program.
Start investing early because compound interest and time are you greatest resource.
Exercise 2: Cover yourself with cash reserves and insurance.
3 months of living expenses is a good target.
Insurance involves a lot of shopping around. Avoid sales commissions and get it yourself.
In insurance, know when bells and whistles are worth. Unless you’ve maxed out other tax-deferred savings, it’s not worth it to have a deferred variable annuity.
Exercise 3: Let the yield on your cash reserve keep pace with inflation.
Your cash reserve should keep pace with inflation (typically 2%), otherwise you’re losing purchasing power. Money Market Mutual Funds have low yields.
Bank Certificate of Deposits (CDs) typically outperform money funds, and are surprisingly safer. However, there are penalties for early withdrawal, and the yield is subject to state and local income tax.
Internet banks offer better rates than typical savings accounts and money funds. FDIC member banks can also provide guarantees.
Treasury Bills (T-bills) are safe, and their yields are exempt from state and local taxes.
Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds have lower yield than the taxable ones. However, if you’re in the highest tax brackets, then the earnings might be more attractive.
offers fixed annuities that have competitive interest rates compared to CDs and bonds, set interest rate regardless of market performance, taxes on interest are deferred until withdrawal, and there are no IRS contribution limits. However, the terms start at 3 years and are capped at 10 years.
Exercise 4: Learn how to dodge the tax collector
Strive to make your savings tax-deductible and let your savings/investments grow tax-free.
| Roth IRA | Traditional IRA | |
|---|---|---|
| Key tax benefits | Contributions are made with after-tax money. Earnings grow tax-free. Contributions can be withdrawn at any time. Earnings can be withdrawn tax-free if eligible. | Contributions may be tax-deductible. Earnings grow tax-deferred, and are not taxed until withdrawn. |
| Income requirements | Less than $153k for single and $228k for couple | Anyone over 18 can contribute. There are income limits for how much of the contribution is tax-deductible. |
| Withdrawals | Tax-free and penalty-free withdrawals for 5y old accounts and age 59.5 | Pay taxes on earnings and contributions |
| Early-withdrawal penalties | Taxes on earnings and 10% additional tax | Taxes on earnings and 10% additional tax |
| Required minimum distributions | None | Required after turning 73 |
The maximum total contribution to IRAs is revised frequently, e.g., 2008 - $5,000, 2013 - $5,500, 2019 - $6,000, 2023 - $6,500.
Backdoor Roth IRA involves making non-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA, and then converting the contribution to a Roth IRA. The conversion is a taxable event, and can push you into a higher tax bracket. Backdoor IRAs are useful for people making too much to contribute directly to a Roth IRA.
And now, Peter Thiel who grew his Roth IRA account to +$5b tax free. The recipe is: buy 1.7m PayPal shares for $1,700 in 1999 (you can’t get this deal, unless you’re some Peter Thiel); PayPal goes public and your Roth IRA is worth $28.5m by 2002; selling the shares is tax free because you’re in a Roth IRA; invest proceeds in more companies (preferably startups' shares at sweetheart deals, e.g. Facebook); Roth IRA keeps growing; wait until you’re 59.5 years old; cash out tax free.
There are levels to this shit! But seriously though, this game needs new rules.
Employers tend to match some percentage of pension profit-sharing plans (e.g. 401(k)). Contributions limited to $18,500 annually for people under 50, as of 2018
Self-employed individuals can establish retirement plans and contribute up to $55k annually, as of 2018.
529 plans allow their investments to be withdrawn tax free if they are used to pay for college. $75k max for an individual. If the proceeds aren’t used for college, then you pay tax plus a penalty.
Exercise 5: Understand your investment objectives
| Asset | 2018 Expected Pre-Tax Return | Time to get expected return | Risk level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank accounts | 0 - 2 | N/A | $100k guaranteed. Sure loser with high inflation. |
| Money-market funds | 1 - 2 | N/A | Most funds do govt securities. |
| Certificate of Deposit (CDs) | .5 - 2.5 | Specified in CD | Penalty for early withdrawal |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) | .5 - 1 plus inflation | +5yrs | Prices vary if sold before maturity |
| High quality corporate bonds (prime-quality public utilities) | 3.5 - 5 | 5 - 30 yrs | Prices vary if sold prematurely. Junk bonds are riskier |
| Diversified portfolios of blue-chip developed country common stocks | 5.5 - 7 | the longer the better; depends on current conditions | wild swings e.g. 25% loss, but a good inflation hedge in the long run |
| Real Estate and REIT | Similar to common stock | If REIT, similar to common stock | Similar to common stock, but REITs help diversify and hedge inflation |
| Diversified portfolios of smaller growth companies | the longer the better; depends on current conditions | wild swings e.g. 50% loss, but a good inflation hedge in the long run | |
| Diversified portfolios of emerging-market stocks | 8-9 | plan for +10yrs | fluctuate wildly, even 75% in a year |
| Gold | Unpredictable | Greater fools and speculative crazes | Good hedge against doomsday inflation |
Exercise 6: Don’t rent; own
The real estate market is less efficient than the stock market. RE tends to outperform stocks during accelerating inflation.
Buying a home is better tax-wise, e.g. interest on up to $750k in mortgage debt & property taxes up to $10k are tax deductible; First $500k from sale is tax-exempt.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) reduce risk in a portfolio because of moderate correlation w/ other assets.
Exercise 7: Walking Through Bond Country
Zero-Coupon Bonds allows you to lock in yields for a pre-determined period of time. They are purchased at a discount and do not pay interest. Useful for funding future liabilities.
Unfortunately, their yearly income must be declared annually to the IRS.
No-Load Bond Funds have no guarantee that you can reinvest your interest at constant rates. However, they offer long-run stability, and thus suitable for individuals who plan to live off interest.
Because bond markets are as efficient as stock markets, go for low-expense bond index funds. Don’t buy a load fund with a commission fee because you can get it for free yourself.
Tax-Exempt Bonds are useful for high tax bracket investors. These are typically issued by state and local governments and port authorities.
If buying bonds directly (rather than through mutual funds) buy new issues to get better yields and avoid transaction charges. Stick to issues rated at least A by Moody’s and Standard & Poor.
If interest rates go up, the price of your bonds will go down. If interest rates go down, the issue may repay the debt early and issue new bonds at lower rates. Make sure your long-term bonds have protection against the issuer refunding bonds at lower rates.
Bonds from emerging markets have a bad rep of being risky and of poor quality. However, many emerging economies have lower debt:GDP and better government fiscal balances. Diversify your bonds.
Exercise 7A: During financial repressions, use bond substitutes for part of the aggregate bond portfolio.
Governments (especially those with large entitlement programs for aging populations) tend to keep interest rates artificially low to reduce the real debt burden and restructure the debts on the backs of bondholders.
Sometimes do stock, e.g. if AT&T’s 15-year bonds yield 4.5% and common stock yields 6%, then AT&T stock is better. However, only do this substitution for a portion of your bond portfolio.
Exercise 8: Be careful about gold, collectibles and other investments.
In times of inflation, gold is king. Have a modest slot for it. Diamonds involve large commission costs and judging quality is best left for an expert.
Buy collectibles because you love them, not because you want them to appreciate. In 1519, the Salvator Mundi sold for ~500k, but sold for $450m in 2017. However, that is a paltry 1.35% return from 1519 to 2018.
Investigate claim that art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 250% since 2000 .
Commodities futures contracts are good for professionals. Amateurs can easily get clobbered.
Steer clear of hedge funds, private equity and venture capital funds. The average performance is disappointing. Unless you’re an institutional investor with a preferential position, your chances of investing with the best is realistically zero. Fund managers will pocket large management fees and 20% of the profits too.
Exercise 9: Remember that investment costs are not random
Don’t let low commission rates fool you. Day traders tend to be unsuccessful.
Avoid wrap accounts where, for a single fee, the broker obtains the services of a professional money manager. Brokerage commissions and advisory fees are wrapped in, and can be up to 3% per year.
“Small” fees over time add up. Suppose you’re investing for 40 years at a gain of \(7\%\). If you’re paying a \(.45\%\) management fee, then you end up losing \(\frac{1.07^{40} - 1.0655^{40}}{1.07^{40}} = 15.51\% \).
Exercise 10: Diversify your investment steps.
Remember the Enron employees that had nothing but Enron stock in their retirement plans.
References
- A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Ch. 12. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers and Other Investors. Malkiel, Burton Gordon. Jun 1, 2019. ISBN: 9780393356939 .
- Best CD Rates for June 2020 | Bankrate. www.bankrate.com .
- Sticky Deposit Rates. John C. Driscoll; Ruth A. Judson. www.federalreserve.gov . Oct 1, 2013.
- Lord of the Roths: How Tech Mogul Peter Thiel Turned a Retirement Account for the Middle Class Into a $5 Billion Tax-Free Piggy Bank. Justin Elliott; Patricia Callahan; James Bandler. www.propublica.org . yro.slashdot.org . Jun 24, 2021. Accessed Jun 27, 2021.
- Deferred Fixed Annuity | The Fidelity Insurance Network | Fidelity Fidelity. www.fidelity.com . Accessed Jun 6, 2023.
- Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs) | Internal Revenue Service. www.irs.gov . Accessed Aug 13, 2023.
- Individual retirement account - Wikipedia. en.wikipedia.org . Accessed Aug 13, 2023.
- Roth IRA vs traditional IRA | Comparing IRAs | Fidelity. www.fidelity.com . Accessed Aug 13, 2023.
- Backdoor Roth IRA | Is an IRA conversion right for you | Fidelity. www.fidelity.com . Accessed Aug 19, 2023.
When it comes to setting saving accounts' interest rates with regard to the interest rate that banks enjoy from the fed , banks are downwards-flexible and upwards-sticky. Depositors lose the tune of $100b when interest rates are rising.
One is better off with special accounts such as Marcus by Goldman Sachs (1.05% APY) or Ally (1.00% APY) or PNC High Yield (1.00% APY) . Some of these accounts are limited to US citizens.